A ranar 1 ga Fabrairu, an fitar da mintuna na taron Kwamitin Kasuwanci na Tarayya (FOMC), kuma Fed ta sanar da hauhawar farashin 25bps. Don haka, kasuwanni sun fara yin taro.
Wani bayanin kula mai ban sha'awa shi ne cewa mintuna na taron FOMC da taron manema labaru da ke da alaƙa sun bayyana sabani a cikin yanayi saboda babu wani madaidaicin hawkish ko labarin dovish a duka biyun. Maganar ta shake. A halin da ake ciki, harshen Shugaban Fed Powell a cikin taron manema labarai ya kasance mai ban mamaki, yana kwatanta tsarin rarrabuwar kawuna kamar yadda aka fara kuma a matsayin "ƙarfafawa da gamsarwa". Kasuwanni sun kalli wannan a matsayin alamar ci gaba da zanga-zangar kwanan nan. Ƙarfe masu daraja, ãdalci, da kadarorin haɗari duk sun ga gagarumin taimako bayan taro.
Ƙididdiga na farko na koma bayan tattalin arziki ko da yaushe suna zama ɗan sauƙi mai sauƙi wanda hauhawar farashi da haɓaka ke fara raguwa a hankali. Taron na jiya ya yi tsokaci kan ra'ayoyin da alamu na baya-bayan nan ke nuni da cewa an samu raguwar kashe kudi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, daidai abin da farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki zai yi hasashe. Kamar yadda kasuwanni ke ɗaukar labari mai laushi mai laushi, rashin turawa na Fed akan sauƙin yanayin kuɗi ya ƙara mai a cikin wuta. Ganin wannan, yana da shakka cewa kasuwanni za su daina haɗuwa sai dai idan ɗaya daga cikin shari'o'i biyu ya faru: Na farko idan bayanai sun zo cikin zafi, yana iya tsoratar da kasuwa don tunanin Fed zai mayar da hankali kuma ya tayar da rates fiye da kwanan nan da aka lura 25bps hike. Labari na biyu shine sauran matsananci. Idan bayanai sun fara zuwa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki tare da raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da rashin ƙarfi, wannan zai kawar da duk masu imani a cikin labarun saukowa mai laushi, don haka dakatar da taron. Koyaya, a halin yanzu, yana kama da taron kasuwa na 2023 na iya ci gaba har sai ɗayan waɗannan yanayin ya faru. Wani abu mai mahimmanci a lura shi ne, a duk lokacin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya wuce 5% a baya, ba zai sake dawowa ba tare da Ƙididdigar Kuɗi na Tarayya ya wuce CPI ba. Idan akai la'akari da Kuɗin Kuɗi na Tarayya a halin yanzu a 4.65% da hauhawar farashin CPI a 6.5%, ƙarin haɓakar ƙimar suna kan sararin sama sai dai idan bayanai sun zo cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Bayanan CPI akan 14th za su ba da haske mai mahimmanci game da ko Fed zai bi kwatankwacin Babban Bankin Turai & Bankin Ingila kuma ya tafi tare da hawan 50bps maimakon hawan 25bps.
Wani muhimmin abin lura shi ne Apple, Amazon, da Alphabet (kamfanin iyaye na Google) duk sun rasa ribar da aka samu a daren jiya. Idan uku daga cikin manyan kamfanoni na duniya sun rasa samun riba, hakan ba zai haifar da kwarin gwiwa ga fatan gujewa koma bayan tattalin arziki ba. Abu ɗaya shine tabbas, S&P500 zai yi nasara lokacin da NYSE ya buɗe daga baya a yau.
Duba ginshiƙi akan TradingView nan.