Yayin da hutun ranar 4 ga Yuli ke gabatowa, mun tashi zuwa kashi na biyu na al'ada na shekarar ciniki ta kasafin kudi. Ranar 'yancin kai na wannan shekara ta zo tare da ƙarin haske - "Super" Cikakken Buck Moon. Ga mafi yawan ’yan kasuwa masu camfi, wannan ya nuna alamar wata na farko a shekara da kuma farkon jerin guda huɗu waɗanda za a iya gani har zuwa ƙarshen Satumba. Wataƙila akwai ƙarin ’yan kasuwa masu camfi a can fiye da yadda muke tunani, kamar yadda yanayin kasuwa ke neman canzawa yayin wannan taron na sama.
A cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, an sami canje-canje akai-akai a cikin makonnin da Supermoon ya bayyana da dusashewa. A cikin 2020, lokacin daga Maris 9 zuwa 7 ga Mayu ya shaida wani taron taurari na 161% a cikin kasuwar Bear, kama da phoenix yana tashi daga toka. Sabanin haka, tazarar 2021 daga 27 ga Afrilu zuwa 24 ga Yuni an yi masa alama da 51% capitulation a cikin Kasuwar Bijimi, mai tunawa da faduwar Icarus. Kwanan nan, daga Yuni 14 zuwa 12 ga Agusta, 2022, kasuwannin sun sami haɓakar 43% tsalle a tsakiyar kasuwar Bear.
Tare da abubuwan da ke faruwa a sararin sama da jujjuyawar kasuwa a cikin zukatanmu, bari yanzu mu daina shiga cikin yanayin yanayin yanzu. Ya zuwa yanzu, kamar yadda ginshiƙi na sama ke nunawa, kasuwannin wannan makon sun kasance masu alamar rashin hankali, tare da hannun jari da cryptocurrencies sun ɗan tashi tsakanin 0-2% yayin da farashin riba ya kasance a tsaye. Kasashen Saudiyya da Rasha sun sanya hannu kan matakin rage yawan man da suke hakowa yayin da farashin man ke ci gaba da raguwa da kuma tabarbarewar farashin man fetur saboda karancin bukatu. Waɗannan ƙananan farashin suna ba da ingantattun yanayin kasuwa don masu yin kwalliya su yi amfani da su. A halin yanzu, ana tsammanin hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da yawa daga masu lura da kasuwanni don daidaitawa kusan 3-4% a cikin ƙarshen shekara, wanda ya yi tasiri ta hanyar kawar da tasirin tushe mai kyau sakamakon faduwar farashin mai a wannan kwata. Don haka, 'yan kasuwa na iya yin tunanin gina shinge kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta hanyar ware jari ga kadarorin da ke da tarihin bunƙasa a cikin yanayin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, irin su karafa masu daraja kamar zinari, mallakar gidaje, ko ma'auni na kamfanonin da ke da karfin farashi. Babban tambaya ga yan kasuwa na crypto shine ko a ƙarshe za a ga BTC a matsayin wani kadari na 'shinge hauhawar farashin kaya'.
A gefen macro, yayin da labulen ke faɗowa a makon ciniki, Matsayin Tarayyar Tarayya ya fito da tsabta kuma yana da kamanceceniya da hauhawar yawan amfanin ƙasa na dogon lokaci na Amurka. Bayan sakin mintuna na taron FOMC a ranar Laraba, Rate Terminal Rate ya ci gaba da kasancewa a 5.4%, daidai da bayanin manufofin kwanan nan. Kamar yadda aka yi tsammani, Fed na ci gaba da kula da matsayi na hawkish. Mintunan sun sake maimaita abin da Powell ke tattaunawa a cikin 'yan makonnin da suka gabata: yarjejeniya tsakanin mambobin Fed cewa ƙarin haɓakar kuɗi zai zama dole a wannan shekara, yana nuna cewa Fed yana kan hanyar da ta dace zuwa wani karuwa a wannan watan. An yi tsammanin wannan yanayin sosai, saboda kasuwanni sun riga sun fara farashi a kusan maki 33 na ƙarin haɓaka. Bugu da ƙari, yawan amfanin da ake samu na dogon lokaci na Amurka ya kai matsayinsa mafi girma tun watan Maris bayan haɓakar GDP na farkon kwata-kwata fiye da yadda ake tsammani. Wannan haɓakar tattalin arziƙin yana baiwa Fed damar samun damar haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin tarayya sama ba tare da sanya tattalin arzikin cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki ba. Wannan yana ba 'yan kasuwa dama ta hanyar Treasury Inverse ETFs. An ƙirƙira waɗannan ETFs don motsawa zuwa akasin shugabanci na farashin haɗin kuɗi na Baitulmali. Lokacin da Tarayyar Tarayya ta haɓaka ƙimar kuɗi, farashin haɗin gwiwa gabaɗaya yana raguwa, yana haifar da haɓakar haɓakar haɗin gwiwa. Saboda haka, ana iya sa ran Treasury Inverse ETFs za su samu, yana ba yan kasuwa damar samun riba.
A ƙarshe, daidaita bayanan tattalin arziƙi mai ƙarfi, tsammanin kasuwa, da madaidaicin matsayi na Babban Bankin Tarayya ya ba da muhimmiyar mahimmin yanayin yanayin kuɗi yayin da muke kewaya rabin na biyu na shekarar kasafin kuɗi. Haɗin kai na dogon lokaci da ake samu a Amurka yana haɓaka sabon matsayi, wanda aka samu ta hanyar haɓakar GDP mai ƙarfi ba zato ba tsammani, da dabarar da Tarayyar Tarayya ta bi wajen daidaita ƙimar kuɗin tarayya, yana nuna ƙaƙƙarfan cuɗanya da ƙarfin tattalin arziki a wurin aiki. Ga 'yan kasuwa da masu tsara manufofi iri ɗaya, yanayin kasuwa na yanzu yana buƙatar kulawa ta kusa da yanke shawara.